Nicholas Eberstadt has a very revealing piece over at the Washington Post about North Korea. I have previously written about the dangers of North Korea here and here and here.

Here is a rundown of his arguments and my comments on them (emphasis are mine unless otherwise noted):

The North Korean government did not suddenly claim to join the world’s nuclear weapons club on a bizarre and inexplicable whim. The announcement represented the entirely predictable culmination of decades of careful, painstaking, costly efforts and calculations.

How true. That is what has always bothered me about dealing with the Norks. Anything that they would agree to is just a way for them to buy time to continue on with their ultimate goal: a unified Korean Peninsula. That means they are willing to spare no cost in achieving this.

…[North Korea is] a political construct especially and particularly built for three entwined purposes: to conduct a war, to settle a historical grievance and to fulfill a grand ideological vision.

He goes on to spell out the three purposes. The main two are the grievance at ‘loosing’ the Korean War and that the war is still going on.

Although we are sometimes inattentive, the fact is that the Korean War’s battles were halted only through a 1953 cease-fire agreement. The Korean War is, from the DPRK’s standpoint, an ongoing conflict — and North Korea’s leadership is committed to an unconditional victory, however long it might take and however much it might cost.

North Korea maintains a vast conventional army with a failing, Soviet-type economy. Obviously, that force could not prevail over the combined South Korea-U.S. alliance. Thus the neutralization, and removal, of the United States from the Korean equation is imperative from Pyongyang’s perspective.

Those two paragraphs show why negotiations with the North Koreans will not work. It also shows why they desperately want nuclear weapons. They need to level the battlefield. He raises some interesting points about how the North Koreans could drive a wedge between the U.S. and South Korea which would lead to the eventual disintegration of our alliance. Once that happens, North Korea will be free to pummel the South into submission. This goes along with my thoughts concerning China and China’s interest in this game. I believe China wants the North Koreans to have nuclear weapons, or at least the appearance of having them, so that the U.S. is on the ropes, so to speak. If the Norks could kill the South Korean-US alliance, then that keeps the U.S. from the doorstep of China, which would then free China to gobble up Taiwan. China understands the North Koreans and knows that there is no way to make them stop their nuclear program. After all, North Korea is still trying to win the Korean War.

Third, those who hope for a “win-win” solution to the current nuclear impasse must recognize the plain fact that North Korea does not engage in “win-win” bargaining and never has. The historical record is clear: Pyongyang believes in zero-sum solutions, preferring not only victories but also face-losing setbacks for its opponents. To Pyongyang, “win-win” solutions are not only impractical but immoral.

This paragraph needs to be read and memorized by the State Department and other countries. You CAN NOT NEGOTIATE with these guys. Period!

Kim Jong Il is doing his best to make the world safe for the DPRK. Our task, by contrast, is to make the world safe from [emphasis his] the DPRK. This will be a difficult, expensive and dangerous undertaking. For America and its allies, however, the costs and dangers of failure are higher — incalculably higher.

That sums up what I have been warning about. I do not know how to stop the North Koreans. It is definitely a balancing act, but I do think you have to be realistic about it. Negotiations are not going to work. All they do is buy the North Koreans time to acquire the weapons they need to win the war. As soon as we realize that, we can begin working on contingency plans.

One of the ways to diffuse the crisis may be for China to open up its boarders to North Korean refugees. A flood of refugees would result. Granted, that would put a special burden on China, but the effect of a mass exodus could lead to the downfall of the North Korean government, ala East Germany. But that would require China to be a willing participant in this crisis. I do not believe they will be. However, once China takes Taiwan, they may be willing to help the rest of the world with the North Korean problem.

Scary world, ain’t it?