I listened to an NPR story on the way home yesterday about China purchasing an old Russian aircraft carrier. The main thrust of the story was trying to determine why the ChiComs bought a carrier and if it could be retrofitted and made operational again. Michele Norris from Jane’s Defense Weekly answered questions about the carrier and he said that he thought they wanted one to learn how to build one themselves. After all, starting from scratch would take many years, while studying one that is already built could give them shortcuts and insights. He also said it could take up to 10 years to make the carrier operational, but he did add that if enough money was tossed at it, that the timetable would be sped up considerably.

Then today I read a story in The Washington Times about the joint Russian-Chinese war games that are set to begin tomorrow.

We know that China desperately wants to destroy Taiwan and that the Russians are desperate to sell military equipment to anybody. So I want to be the first to call Bull S**t on the stated reasons behind these war games. I will demonstrate with some quotes:

“For the Chinese and the Russians, this is a message to the United States,” one U.S. official said. “They want to see our bases in Central Asia and presence in Asia cut back.”

The eight days of exercises have been dubbed Peace Mission 2005 and will involve about 10,000 Russian and Chinese troops who will fight “terrorists” in a simulated regional conflict.

Because China defines terrorism as including “separatists,” U.S. intelligence officials think the exercises are directed at Taiwan, which Beijing views as a breakaway province, and the United States, which has vowed to protect Taiwan from mainland attack.

Defense officials said the forces participating in the war games are designed to practice amphibious landings and anti-submarine warfare — not traditional counterterrorism operations.

Russian military chief of staff Gen. Yuri Baluyevsky said in Moscow last week that the idea of the war games “is that Russia and China are helping a third country tackling issues connected with proliferation of illegal militarized formations that are beginning anti-state activities.”

“Naval forces can and must be used to blockade — in particular from the sea — part of the territory of this state, just as aircraft can also be used to blockade from the air,” he told the Izvestiya newspaper.

I think it is painfully obvious that they are practicing the invasion of Taiwan. I know that Russia wants to sell weapons, but why would they facilitate China’s takeover of Taiwan? What is the benefit of such a move? If China did invade Taiwan and Russia was found to have helped, eased, facilitated, aided…how ever you want to phrase it… they would risk attack by the U.S.

Ah, but maybe that is why they have aligned themselves with China. Look, if China does attack Taiwan the chances of the U.S. abiding by its treaty to defend Taiwan are not so hot. I think we need to defend them and make that clear, but will the U.S. be willing to lose a city or two to nukes launched from China? I doubt it. So if they invade and Russia helps them, and the U.S. does little more than bitch and moan, then Russia has proven itself to China and the two of them have weakened the U.S. That is good for China and Russia and it would cement a partnership where Russia has outlets to sell its military hardware and it would give China a secure northern border.

However, if the U.S. makes clear that we will defend Taiwan, no matter the costs and we follow through with it, then Russia will be weakened and may be forced to back off. That would be bad for China and Russia. Russia loses a buyer and China no longer has a guaranteed secure northern border.

Either way you look at it, it is a very interesting geopolitical change.

The U.S. needs to begin seeing China for what it is: a potential and growing military threat. Do not be lulled into thinking that economic liberalization will lead to a weakening of the military and the hardliners. After all Mao’s favorite saying was, “Talk, talk. Fight, fight.” They will never lose sight of the ultimate goal. They will say and do what ever it takes to accomplish that goal. Just look at their history.

So you do not think China will risk a nuclear exchange with the U.S. over Taiwan? Check out this Mao quote from 1946:

The atom bomb is a paper tiger which the U.S. reactionaries use to scare people. It looks terrible, but in fact it isn’t. Of course, the atom bomb is a weapon of mass slaughter, but the outcome of a war is decided by the people, not by one or two new types of weapon.