Ken McCracken has a great post over at WILLisms concerning Iran, their hopes for a nuke, their dream of Israel not existing and what to do about all of this.

I have written about Iran and their rendezvous with Israeli munitions several times. See:

The Washington Times has another editorial today concerning Iran:

But once Israel concludes that diplomacy cannot deter an Iranian nuclear attack, it has two major options: The first is to absorb a catastrophic first strike and retaliate with nuclear weapons hidden on Dolphin-class submarines.

The second is to launch a pre-emptive attack with the aim of destroying as much of Iran’s nuclear-weapons infrastructure as possible. One prominent advocate of the latter course of action is Professor Ephraim Inbar, director of the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies at Bar-Ilan University in Israel. While it would be preferable from a military standpoint to have the United States carry out such a military operation, according to Mr. Inbar, Israel is capable of taking action on its own. He believes that even if Israeli forces were only partially successful in destroying the Iranian facilities, they could “cripple” Tehran’s capability to build a nuclear bomb in the near future.

Mr. Inbar’s view is shared by Shai Feldman, head of the Jaffee Center for Strategic Studies at Tel Aviv University, a moderately dovish think tank, who says that “just taking out the facilities that are known, especially if they include the enrichment and heavy water plants, would in itself create a serious degradation of the Iranian potential.”

Let me state upfront that I believe the only way to protect Israel and our interests in the Middle East is to take some sort of military action against Iran. I am even very close to believing that if Iran’s whack job President keeps saying things like he wants Israel wiped off the map, that the Israelis should pre-emptively nuke Iran. Look people, we are not talking abstract issues here. We are talking about a country that has stated as its goal the complete destruction of a thriving Democracy full of 6 million men, women and children. You are the leader of Israel, what do you do? If you do not act, you die. If you act but with restraint, you die. If you pull out all the stops and turn Iran into glass, you may live. Those are the stakes I am talking about.

But getting back to the above editorial, I wanted to focus in on the part that I highlighted. That an attack on Iran may only be partially successful. Here is my prediction. Cullen, you owe me a steak dinner when this comes true:

  1. Israel attacks Iran. Only partially destroying their nuclear capabilities
  2. Said attacks release radioactive material from the nuclear facilities that were targeted
  3. CNN, the BBC, the AP, the New York Times damns Israel to HELL for bombing Iran without provocation
  4. Said news agencies and the rest of the MSM will turn a blind eye to the overwhelming evidence presented by the blogosphere that Iran had stated their intentions and that Israel acted properly
  5. The MSM will have reporters on the ground moaning and groaning about “the children” of Iran. How they will all get cancer now because of Israel
  6. That years Pulitzer will go to a New York Times reporter who wrote extensively about “the children” of Iran and how what Israel did was the same as everything Hitler ever did

Man, I hope I am wrong, but I won’t be. When an attack is only partially successful all the “victims” of the attack will crawl out of the woodwork to tell their story. The MSM will run with it and will overlook the reasons behind the attack and condemn Israel. Israel will be driven out of the UN and if the Democrats get the House or the Senate back the U.S. will cut diplomatic ties with Israel.

If you do nothing and Iran nukes you, there is no one to blame but yourself.

If you attack with conventional weapons, you may only be partially successful and thus guarantee retaliation by Iran and the rest of the Islamic world. You will also be hit with enormous international political fallout.

However. If you turn Iran into glass with your nukes, then there will be few survivors and you will have eliminated one of your fiercest enemies. You would still have the political fallout and you will still guarantee future attacks from other Islamic countries. But at least you would have removed one threat. Maybe when the rest of the Islamic world sees that you are bat shit crazy, they will want to make peace with you. Maybe.

Actually, I am not in favor of Israel nuking Iran. Not yet. It may come to that, but not yet. I think they should try some sort of conventional attack first. The U.S. needs to grow a pair and help them out. But I do not see that happening.

One Response to “If I Were A Betting Man”

  1. on 04 Jan 2006 at 12:48 pm Cullen

    If it happens, you’ll get your steak.