I know I’m no suppose to listen to NPR, but A Prairie Home Companion can be half way enjoyable to listen too. Anyway, there is a line that Garrison Keillor (yes I know he’s a Liberal jackass) uses when he’s reading the news from Lake Wobegon:
Welcome to Lake Wobegon, where all the women are strong, all the men are good-looking, and all the children are above average
It’s funny because of the implausibility of it all. By definition, not everything can be above average.
That’s the point of this post. The good ol’ Bell Curve.
When I was in high school I heard about grading on the curve, but I never understood what it meant. However, when I got to Georgia Tech I quickly understood the “Curve” and what it meant in everyday life.
I am not a math guy, so I’m not going to explain this very thoroughly, but basically it all boils down to 10-80-10.
In most any event (academic tests, athletic ability, financial status, etc.), the results will tend to break down into three positions: the bottom 10%, the middle 80% and the top 10%.
10-80-10.
What am I talking about? Let’s say you give a test to 100 students. There is a very high probability that the scores from the test would break down using the above criteria. That is what is meant by the “curve”. The graph looks like a bell shaped curve. Looking at the scores for the test, basic statistical methods would be able to group the results into the three positions I mentioned. The Wiki has a great explanation of this. I vaguely remember doing things in calculus that dealt with the bell curve or Normal Distribution as it is more properly called…but that was a LONG time ago.
My point?
Oh yeah, this is not going to be a math lesson, I promise.
When I graduated high school, I was in the top 5% of my graduating class. When I started Georgia Tech, the other freshmen were from the top 5-10% of their graduating classes as well. When we started we were all “Above Average”. In fact, we were all the best of the best.
Guess what happens when you put the best of the best together in a school….
The Bell Curve
Yep. It took about two quarters, but it eventually trended that way. I settled into the lower middle 80%. I had friends that were overachievers and ended up in the top 10% and I had friends that almost flunked out.
What happened? I mean, we were all over achievers in high school. We all did very well on the SAT’s. We all did extracuricular activities. Why did some fail, others achieve and still others settled?
People will tell you it’s because of different socio-economic backgrounds or differences in the quality of the high school you attended or because you were away from home for the first time. Any number of reasons can be given. The true answer is probably a combination of all of the above.
Life is like the Bell Curve. There will always be those that fail, those that have some success and some that are hyper-successful.
Look at wealth. We have poor people in this country that will always be poor. Why? There are lots of theories, but it boils down to ambition. How can I say that? You may think I am being harsh. But think of it this way. There are some poor people who are working to get out of poverty. It happens all the time. Someone decides to fight the shackles of poverty, whatever they may be, and do well in school. Avenues start opening up to that person. College or a good trade become possibilities. Those turn into jobs, which allow that person to leave the poverty ranks and enter into the middle class. It’s a hard row to hoe and it takes a very determined person to make it, but it can be accomplished.
Now turn to the middle class. Some people (like me) are content to be middle class. They have a decent job and prepare for retirement. The upper middle class may start college funds, while the lower middle class struggles to stay where they are at.
But.
There are those that see opportunity or are ambitious. They invent something, work harder, take risks, network, whatever, in order to make it big. The successful ones move into the top 10% of the wealthy.
Like the poverty example, it can happen, but it takes a very determined person who is not afraid of risk or failure.
There is movement within the Bell, but the shape stays the same. You will always have those who have less, those that have just enough and those that have more. It’s part of life.
The great thing about America is that you are only bound to your area of the curve by your own ambition. If you want to move up or down, you are free to do so. It’s one of the things that makes our country so great.
The Bell Curve is also why Socialism/Communism will never work. When you make everyone average and there is no incentive or way to move forward, growth becomes stagnant, innovation stops and apathy sets in. After all, why try? It’s not going to help me any. To some, such as the lower 10%, its a windfall. They now are taken care of and things are great, but the middle 80% suffers and the upper 10% somehow manage to remain in power. Oh yeah, and millions of people tend to die too…but who’s counting?
I think I’ve beaten this horse enough.
The Bell Curve!
Catch the Fever!